美国补库存推动中国出口复苏：哪些行业将率先受益？
中国出口呈现"美强欧弱"格局，美国补库存将成为推动中国出口结构性复苏的关键因素。数据显示，10月中国对美出口延续上升趋势，而对欧盟、日本等经济体的出口表现相对疲软。
China's exports show a "strong U.S., weak Europe" pattern, with U.S. inventory restocking becoming a key driver of China's structural export recovery. Data shows that China's exports to the U.S. continued to rise in October, while exports to the EU, Japan and other economies performed relatively weakly.
美国在中国出口中占据核心地位。虽然直接出口美国的份额（14.9%）略低于欧盟（15.1%），但通过东盟、墨西哥等国的间接出口比重远高于欧盟。例如，墨西哥78.7%的商品出口美国，东盟出口中美国占比14.9%，而欧盟仅占9%。
The U.S. plays a central role in China's exports. Although the direct export share to the U.S. (14.9%) is slightly lower than to the EU (15.1%), the indirect export proportion through countries like ASEAN and Mexico is much higher. For example, 78.7% of Mexico's exports go to the U.S., while the U.S. accounts for 14.9% of ASEAN's exports compared to just 9% for the EU.
四类商品出口已现改善迹象：
Four categories of goods show signs of export improvement:
1. 消费电子类产品：以计算机为代表的商品已进入主动补库存阶段。中国对美机电产品出口同比增速自7月见底后连续回升。
1. Consumer electronics: Products like computers have entered active inventory restocking. China's mechanical and electrical exports to the U.S. have rebounded since bottoming out in July.
2. 家具建材类：受益于销售企稳和低库存，木制品、家具等出口同比增速二季度见底回升。
2. Furniture and building materials: Benefiting from stable sales and low inventories, exports of wood products and furniture rebounded after bottoming in Q2.
3. 食品农产品：在低库存和低基数支撑下，6月以来出口同比增速见底回升，8月率先转正。
3. Food and agricultural products: Supported by low inventories and base effects, export growth rebounded since June and turned positive in August.
4. 纺织原料及制品：8月库存见底回升，出口回暖，后续有望保持韧性。
4. Textile materials and products: Inventories bottomed out in August, exports rebounded, and resilience is expected to continue.
展望未来，在"美强欧弱"背景下，强美元和美国债务扩张可能持续，中国出口链的基本面改善有望延续。耐用品和非耐用品的需求复苏与低库存形成共振，相关行业景气度将率先提升。
Looking ahead, against the backdrop of "strong U.S., weak Europe", a strong dollar and U.S. debt expansion may continue, and the fundamental improvement in China's export chain is expected to persist. The resonance between demand recovery and low inventories for both durable and non-durable goods will boost industry sentiment first.
风险提示：经济复苏不及预期，出口不及预期，美国补库低于预期
Risk warnings: Economic recovery falls short of expectations, exports underperform, U.S. restocking is weaker than expected
