2025年一季度轮胎市场预测：先抑后扬趋势分析
根据卓创资讯最新分析报告，2024年四季度中国轮胎市场呈现明显分化态势。全钢轮胎产销失衡加剧，而半钢轮胎则维持紧平衡状态。
According to the latest analysis report from SCI99, China's tire market showed a clear divergence trend in the fourth quarter of 2024. The production and sales of all-steel tires became more imbalanced, while semi-steel tires maintained a tight balance.
四季度市场表现
Q4 Market Performance
数据显示：
- 全钢轮胎：产量约3370万条，销量约3300万条
- 半钢轮胎：产量约1.6亿条，销量约1.66亿条
Data shows:
- All-steel tires: production about 33.7 million, sales about 33 million
- Semi-steel tires: production about 160 million, sales about 166 million
2025年一季度预测
Q1 2025 Forecast
卓创资讯预测2025年一季度轮胎市场将呈现"先抑后扬"走势：
1. 春节前：市场逐渐放缓
2. 春节后：需求复苏+订货会推动
SCI99 predicts the tire market will show a "first decline then rise" trend in Q1 2025:
1. Pre-Spring Festival: Market gradually slows down
2. Post-Spring Festival: Demand recovery + order promotion
产量变化趋势
Production Trend
预计将呈现V型走势：
- 1月：产量降至全年最低
- 2月：同比实现增长
- 3月：市场恢复正常
Expected to show a V-shaped trend:
- January: Production drops to annual low
- February: Year-on-year growth achieved
- March: Market returns to normal
销量影响因素
Sales Influencing Factors
主要受三方面影响：
1. 配套市场支撑
2. 替换市场季节性恢复
3. 出口市场不确定性增加
Mainly affected by three factors:
1. Supporting market support
2. Seasonal recovery of replacement market
3. Increased uncertainty in export market
分析师郭娟指出："2025年春节贯穿1-2月，与2024年情况不同，同比数据需特别注意时间因素。"
Analyst Guo Juan pointed out: "The 2025 Spring Festival spans January-February, different from 2024. Special attention should be paid to the time factor in year-on-year data."
