中国轮胎出口2024：增长放缓与海外产能转移分析
2024年9月，中国出口轮胎5427万条，同比增长6%。值得注意的是，单月轮胎出口金额为128.6亿元（约14.1亿英镑；16.9亿欧元），较去年同期下降1.7%。这是2024年首次出现单月出口金额同比下滑的情况。
In September 2024, China exported 54.27 million tires, a year-on-year increase of 6%. Notably, the monthly tire export value reached 12.86 billion yuan (approximately £1.41 billion; €1.69 billion), down 1.7% compared to the same period last year. This marks the first time in 2024 that monthly export value has shown a year-on-year decline.
2024年出口放缓明显
Significant Export Slowdown in 2024
2024年中国轮胎出口呈现疲软态势。从出口金额看，2月、7月、9月的数据同比分别增长0.5%、0.4%和下降1.7%。表现最好的1月同比增长18%，其他月份增长率均低于8.5%。前三季度轮胎出口金额同比增长4.8%，与2023年全年19.5%的增长率形成鲜明对比。
China's tire exports showed weak performance in 2024. In terms of export value, February, July and September saw year-on-year growth of 0.5%, 0.4% and a decline of 1.7% respectively. The best performance was in January with 18% growth, while other months all showed growth below 8.5%. The export value in the first three quarters increased by 4.8% year-on-year, a stark contrast to the 19.5% growth rate for the whole year of 2023.
产能海外转移趋势明显
Clear Trend of Overseas Capacity Transfer
为规避欧美贸易壁垒，中国轮胎制造商正加速海外建厂。不完全统计显示，包括中策、双星、赛轮等15家企业在海外建设生产基地，布局从东南亚扩展到欧洲、非洲和美洲。
To avoid trade barriers in Europe and America, Chinese tire manufacturers are accelerating overseas factory construction. Incomplete statistics show that 15 companies including Zhongce, Doublestar and Sailun are building production bases overseas, expanding from Southeast Asia to Europe, Africa and America.
2024年，昊华越南工厂、中策印尼工厂等多个海外项目投产。从投产到满产需要产能爬坡期，这些新增海外产能完全释放后，可能对中国轮胎出口造成更大冲击。
In 2024, many overseas projects such as Haohua's Vietnam factory and Zhongce's Indonesia factory started production. It takes time to reach full capacity, and when these new overseas capacities are fully released, they may have greater impact on China's tire exports.
疫情带来的出口红利
Export Benefits from the Pandemic
2024年前三季度中国出口轮胎5.07亿条，金额1180亿元，相比2019年同期分别增长33.4%和53.2%。前三季度数据已超过2019年全年总量（5.01亿条，1020亿元）。
In the first three quarters of 2024, China exported 507 million tires worth 118 billion yuan, up 33.4% and 53.2% respectively compared with the same period in 2019. The data for the first three quarters has exceeded the total for the whole year of 2019 (501 million tires, 102 billion yuan).
欧美市场消费降级使高性价比的中国轮胎更具竞争力。玲珑轮胎2024年前三季度均价显示：半钢子午胎200元/条，全钢子午胎720元/条，斜交胎1200元/条。
Consumption downgrade in European and American markets has made cost-effective Chinese tires more competitive. Linglong Tire's average prices in the first three quarters of 2024 were: 200 yuan per PCR tire, 720 yuan per TBR tire, and 1,200 yuan per bias tire (including OTR tires).
2024年全年预测
Full Year 2024 Forecast
中国轮胎出口呈现"W"型季节曲线，预计2024年全年出口量约6.74亿条，出口金额可能达到157亿元。
China's tire exports show a "W"-shaped seasonal curve. It is estimated that the total export volume for 2024 will be about 674 million tires, with export value possibly reaching 15.7 billion yuan.
