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美联储加息在即，俄罗斯恢复铁矿石出口，钢价今日走势分析
With Fed Rate Hike Looming and Russia Resuming Iron Ore Exports, Today's Steel Price Trend Analysis
✦ 11.1今日市场导读
✦ November 1 Market Highlights
1. 市场预计本周美英双双加息75基点
1. Markets Expect 75bps Rate Hikes from Both Fed and BOE This Week
上周美英国债市场表现强劲，市场普遍预期美联储和英国央行将在本周的议息会议上分别加息75个基点。但同样的加息幅度对两国央行意义不同。
Last week saw strong performance in US and UK bond markets. The market widely expects both the Federal Reserve and Bank of England to raise rates by 75 basis points this week, though the implications differ between the two central banks.
2. 俄罗斯企业恢复铁矿石出口
2. Russian Companies Resume Iron Ore Exports
10月下旬俄罗斯铁矿石生产商恢复出口，供应商提供折扣促进销售。通过摩尔曼斯克港的交货量增长，除Kovdorsky采矿公司外，Metalloinvest也进入市场。
In late October, Russian iron ore producers resumed exports, offering discounts to boost sales. Shipments through Murmansk port increased, with Metalloinvest joining Kovdorsky Mining in the market.
3. 37家上市钢企披露第三季度业绩
3. 37 Listed Steel Companies Release Q3 Results
据Mysteel统计，37家上市钢企第三季度合计营收5500.18亿元，净利润44.97亿元。其中17家净利亏损，仅6家净利润同比正增长。
According to Mysteel, 37 listed steel companies reported total Q3 revenue of 550.018 billion yuan and net profit of 4.497 billion yuan. 17 companies reported losses, with only 6 showing year-on-year profit growth.
钢材市场最新价格走势
Latest Steel Market Price Trends
10月31日国内钢材市场弱势下跌，唐山迁安普方坯出厂含税价下调40元至3410元/吨。制造业PMI数据不及预期影响市场情绪。
On October 31, China's steel market weakened, with Tangshan Qian'an billet prices down 40 yuan to 3,410 yuan/ton. Disappointing manufacturing PMI data affected market sentiment.
四大品种钢材价格分析
Analysis of Four Major Steel Products
1. 建筑钢材：全国均价3883元/吨，下跌61元。高产量遇上需求淡季，预计继续调整。
1. Rebar: National average 3,883 yuan/ton, down 61 yuan. High production meets seasonal demand slowdown, further adjustments expected.
2. 热轧板卷：全国均价3761元/吨，下跌66元。期货价格创两年新低，看空情绪蔓延。
2. Hot-Rolled Coil: National average 3,761 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan. Futures hit two-year low with bearish sentiment spreading.
原料市场情况
Raw Materials Market
• 铁矿石：小幅偏弱，钢厂压价明显
• 焦炭：稳中偏弱，钢厂提降意向增强
• 废钢：主稳个调，需求不足
• 生铁：稳中趋弱，疫情影响物流
• Iron Ore: Slightly weak with steel mills pressing prices
• Coke: Stable to weak with mills seeking reductions
• Scrap: Mostly stable with weak demand
• Pig Iron: Stable to weak affected by logistics issues
后市预测
Market Outlook
11月加息预期压制市场情绪，房企资金紧张问题持续，虽然政策放松但销售未见起色。预计今日钢价仍偏弱运行，幅度20-40元。
November rate hike expectations weigh on sentiment. Despite policy easing, property sales remain weak. Steel prices expected to stay weak today, down 20-40 yuan.
