2024年中国外贸战略调整：应对贸易摩擦与产业空心化风险
在全球贸易格局剧变的背景下，中国外贸正面临前所未有的挑战与机遇。2024年7月，长江商学院欧阳辉教授与叶冬艳研究学者在《财经》杂志发表深度分析，揭示了中国外贸的现状与未来发展方向。
In the context of dramatic changes in global trade patterns, China's foreign trade is facing unprecedented challenges and opportunities. In July 2024, Professor Ouyang Hui and researcher Ye Dongyan from CKGSB published an in-depth analysis in Caijing Magazine, revealing the current situation and future development direction of China's foreign trade.
中美贸易战后的格局变化
Pattern Changes After the Sino-US Trade War
2018年中美贸易战爆发后，两国直接贸易量显著减少。数据显示，美国在中国对外贸易中的份额从2017年的14.27%降至2024年前五个月的10.70%。与此同时，中国与东盟、墨西哥等新兴经济体的贸易占比稳步上升。
After the outbreak of the Sino-US trade war in 2018, direct trade volume between the two countries decreased significantly. Data shows that the US share in China's foreign trade dropped from 14.27% in 2017 to 10.70% in the first five months of 2024. Meanwhile, China's trade proportion with emerging economies such as ASEAN and Mexico has been steadily increasing.
中国企业"走出去"战略
Chinese Enterprises' "Going Global" Strategy
为应对贸易壁垒，中国企业加速海外布局。数据显示，中国对越南直接投资从2014年的4.27亿美元增至2023年的44.71亿美元。墨西哥方面，中国已成为其第四大外商直接投资来源国。
To cope with trade barriers, Chinese enterprises have accelerated overseas expansion. Data shows that China's direct investment in Vietnam increased from $427 million in 2014 to $4.471 billion in 2023. In Mexico, China has become its fourth largest source of foreign direct investment.
产业空心化风险警示
Warning of Industrial Hollowing-out Risks
研究指出，中国制造业增加值占GDP比重从2006年的32.5%峰值降至2020年的26.3%，虽然2022年回升至27.7%，但仍处于多年低位。这种过早、过快的下降趋势可能削弱中国经济抗风险能力。
The study points out that the proportion of manufacturing value added in China's GDP dropped from the peak of 32.5% in 2006 to 26.3% in 2020. Although it rebounded to 27.7% in 2022, it remains at a multi-year low. This premature and rapid decline trend may weaken China's economic resilience.
2024外贸展望
2024 Foreign Trade Outlook
随着美国大选临近，贸易保护主义可能再次升温。专家建议中国企业应：
1. 继续推进市场多元化战略
2. 加强技术创新能力
3. 优化全球供应链布局
As the US election approaches, trade protectionism may heat up again. Experts suggest Chinese enterprises should:
1. Continue to promote market diversification strategy
2. Strengthen technological innovation capabilities
3. Optimize global supply chain layout
