中国下半年出口增速能否持续回升？外贸新动能与跨境电商前景分析
21世纪经济报道 - 近年来，中国外贸不断突破新纪录，加速提质升级。电动载人汽车、锂离子蓄电池、太阳能电池等"新三样"成为新的增长点，跨境电商、海外仓等外贸新业态、新模式持续健康快速发展。
21st Century Business Herald - In recent years, China's foreign trade has continuously broken new records, accelerating quality improvement and upgrading. The "new three" of electric passenger vehicles, lithium-ion batteries, and solar cells have become new growth points, while new business forms and models such as cross-border e-commerce and overseas warehouses continue to develop rapidly and healthily.
7月30日，国务院新闻办举行"推动高质量发展"系列主题新闻发布会，海关总署副署长赵增连介绍，党的十八大以来，我国外贸年均增长1.6万亿元，货物贸易总额连续7年位居全球第一。
On July 30, the State Council Information Office held a press conference on the theme of "Promoting High-Quality Development". Zhao Zenglian, Deputy Director of the General Administration of Customs, introduced that since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, China's foreign trade has grown by an average of 1.6 trillion yuan annually, with total goods trade ranking first in the world for seven consecutive years.
外贸体制改革"1+1+4"框架
"1+1+4" Framework for Foreign Trade System Reform
赵增连表示，海关总署已初步研究形成了贯彻落实的框架思路，概括为"1+1+4"：一个目标、一个总抓手和四方面重点工作任务。
Zhao Zenglian stated that the General Administration of Customs has preliminarily developed an implementation framework summarized as "1+1+4": one goal, one main approach, and four key tasks.
四方面重点工作任务包括：完善海关守护国门安全机制、优化海关促进开放发展机制、健全海关法规制度、完善海关落实全面从严治党制度机制。
The four key tasks include: improving customs mechanisms for safeguarding national security, optimizing customs mechanisms for promoting open development, improving customs legal systems, and enhancing customs mechanisms for implementing comprehensive and strict governance of the Party.
下半年外贸走势分析
Analysis of Foreign Trade Trends in the Second Half of the Year
海关总署新闻发言人吕大良表示，上半年我国外贸较快增长主要得益于三方面因素：宏观政策加力推进、外部需求边际改善、产业体系配套完整和科技创新推动产业创新。
Lu Daliang, spokesperson for the General Administration of Customs, stated that the rapid growth of China's foreign trade in the first half of the year was mainly due to three factors: strengthened macroeconomic policies, marginal improvement in external demand, and a complete industrial system with technological innovation driving industrial innovation.
中信证券首席经济学家明明认为，去年同期较低基数、海外补库周期渐次开启、共建"一带一路"国家制造业景气回暖等因素有望带动后续几个月出口增速继续回升。
Ming Ming, chief economist at CITIC Securities, believes that factors such as the low base in the same period last year, the gradual opening of overseas restocking cycles, and the recovery of manufacturing in countries jointly building the "Belt and Road" initiative are expected to drive continued recovery in export growth in the coming months.
跨境电商发展前景
Prospects for Cross-border E-commerce Development
据海关统计，2023年我国跨境电商进出口较2018年增长了1.2倍；初步测算，今年上半年进出口1.22万亿元，同比增长10.5%。
According to customs statistics, China's cross-border e-commerce imports and exports in 2023 increased by 1.2 times compared to 2018; preliminary calculations show that imports and exports in the first half of this year reached 1.22 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%.
商务部专家李鸣涛指出，中国跨境电商市场呈现三个特点：进口增速低于出口增速、出口价格竞争日趋激烈、"跨境电商+产业带"成为平台布局重点。
Li Mingtao, an expert from the Ministry of Commerce, pointed out that China's cross-border e-commerce market exhibits three characteristics: import growth is lower than export growth, export price competition is becoming increasingly fierce, and "cross-border e-commerce + industrial clusters" has become the focus of platform layouts.
海关总署表示，将不断完善有利于跨境电商发展的海关监管制度，优化完善海关跨境电商通关服务系统功能，简化流程、优化服务。
The General Administration of Customs stated that it will continuously improve customs supervision systems conducive to the development of cross-border e-commerce, optimize and enhance the functions of customs clearance service systems for cross-border e-commerce, and simplify processes and improve services.
