2025中国消费趋势预测：价值、出海与数字化转型
作者 | 蓝鲨消费 魏强 Author | Lansha Consumer Wei Qiang
在当今复杂多变的国内外政治经济环境下，消费领域机遇与挑战并存。12月7日，在蓝鲨消费主办的2024消费产业独角兽峰会上，毕马威中国风险管理合伙人高原分享了《经济新周期与消费新机遇》的深度洞察。
Amidst today's complex domestic and international political and economic environment, the consumer sector faces both opportunities and challenges. On December 7th, at the 2024 Consumer Industry Unicorn Summit hosted by Lansha Consumer, Gao Yuan, Risk Management Partner at KPMG China, shared profound insights on "New Economic Cycle and New Consumer Opportunities".
经济新周期 New Economic Cycle
2024年前三季度中国GDP同比增长4.8%，与市场预期持平。消费领域面临挑战：前三季度社会消费品零售总额增长3.3%，较2023年同期回落3.5%。消费对GDP增长的贡献率为2.4%，低于去年同期的2.8%。
China's GDP grew by 4.8% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024, meeting market expectations. The consumer sector faces challenges: total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.3% in the first three quarters, down 3.5% from the same period in 2023. Consumption contributed 2.4% to GDP growth, lower than 2.8% in the same period last year.
消费四大关键词 Four Key Consumer Trends
- 价值 - 情绪价值与功能价值并重 Value - Emotional value and functional value
- 出海 - 全球化布局成为必然选择 Globalization - Overseas expansion becomes imperative
- 低线城市 - 下沉市场潜力巨大 Lower-tier Cities - Huge potential in下沉 markets
- 企业内功 - 核心竞争力是关键 Corporate Capabilities - Core competitiveness is crucial
2025消费新趋势 2025 Consumer Trends
奢侈品与时尚：数字化转型加速，体验经济崛起。奢侈品牌通过跨界合作拓展新领域，注重沉浸式体验。
Luxury & Fashion: Accelerated digital transformation, rise of experience economy. Luxury brands expand into new areas through cross-border collaborations, focusing on immersive experiences.
健康与美妆：预计2025年中国化妆品市场规模达5791亿元。国货品牌崛起，绿色健康理念盛行，香水市场潜力巨大。
Health & Beauty: China's cosmetics market is expected to reach 579.1 billion yuan by 2025. Domestic brands rise, green health concepts prevail, fragrance market shows huge potential.
食品饮料：健康产品主流化，功能性饮料增长显著。AI和大数据推动行业创新，线上线下融合成趋势。
Food & Beverage: Healthy products become mainstream, functional drinks show significant growth. AI and big data drive innovation, online-offline integration becomes a trend.
餐饮行业：数智化转型加速，连锁加盟模式扩张，卫星店模式成为新增长点，中餐出海潜力巨大。
Catering Industry: Accelerated digital transformation, expansion of chain franchise models, satellite store model emerges as new growth point, Chinese cuisine shows huge global potential.
尽管2024年充满挑战，但中国消费市场展现强大韧性。企业家需要积极应对变化，强化核心竞争力，把握2025年新机遇。
Despite challenges in 2024, China's consumer market demonstrates strong resilience. Entrepreneurs need to actively respond to changes, strengthen core competitiveness, and seize new opportunities in 2025.
