从无接触经济到数字经济：疫情带来的启示
从无接触经济到数字经济：疫情带来的启示
From Contactless Economy to Digital Economy: Insights from the Pandemic
彭文生 | 疫情的留痕——从无接触经济到数字经济
Peng Wensheng | Pandemic Traces - From Contactless Economy to Digital Economy
很荣幸有这样一个机会向各位分享我对疫情下无接触经济发展及其含义的一些思考。3月5日发生了一件有标志性意义的事件，世界银行和国际货币基金组织宣布2020年春季会议改成远程会议，这可以说是两大国际金融机构70年来第一次非现场举办重要的年度会议。
It's my great honor to share some thoughts on the development of contactless economy during the pandemic and its implications. On March 5th, a landmark event occurred when the World Bank and IMF announced their Spring Meetings would be held remotely - the first time in 70 years these two major international financial institutions held important annual meetings virtually.
无接触经济的形式
Forms of Contactless Economy
我们讲的无接触经济可以简单地理解为不需要人和人见面就能完成的一些经济活动。这一次疫情，我们看到很多这样的经济行为。
The contactless economy can be simply understood as economic activities that can be completed without face-to-face interaction. During this pandemic, we've witnessed many such economic behaviors.
疫情下人员隔离，但一些消费行为通过网购、电商还是能够完成。尤其是一些直播电商，在最近几年有突破性的发展。最近我们还看到在线卖车、在线卖房，这些是耐用消费品尝试线上销售。
Despite quarantine measures, certain consumption behaviors could still be completed through online shopping and e-commerce. Particularly live-streaming e-commerce has seen breakthrough development in recent years. We've also witnessed online car and property sales - durable consumer goods attempting online sales.
无接触经济启示一：机器赋能人
Insight 1: Machines Empower Humans
我们讲数字经济、讲人工智能，大家谈到最多的是什么？机器替代人，由此带来失业的担心？其实机器既能替代人也能赋能人。
When discussing digital economy and AI, what do people talk about most? Machines replacing humans and resulting unemployment concerns? In fact, machines can both replace and empower humans.
这次疫情给我们展示的更多的是赋能人，也就是技术增加我们人的劳动生产力而不是替代人，应该说这是疫情给我们最大的一个启示。
The pandemic has demonstrated more about human empowerment - technology enhancing rather than replacing human labor productivity. This is perhaps the most significant insight from the pandemic.
无接触经济启示二：服务业可贸易
Insight 2: Tradable Services
传统经济学告诉我们制造业是可贸易品，服务业是不可贸易品。而这一次疫情的隔离，限制了人员的流动，效果类似于国家之间的移民控制。
Traditional economics tells us manufacturing is tradable while services are not. The pandemic quarantine restricting personnel movement has effects similar to immigration controls between countries.
无接触经济克服人员不能自由流动的障碍，揭示了服务业可贸易的潜力。这对我们理解经济发展的路径，经济结构和收入分配都有深远的含义。
The contactless economy overcomes barriers to free movement, revealing the potential for tradable services. This has profound implications for understanding economic development paths, structures and income distribution.
无接触经济启示三：生产率与发展模式之辩
Insight 3: Debate on Productivity and Development Models
数字经济的发展意味着部分服务业将成为新的劳动生产率增长点。传统的经济增长理论假设单一部门平衡增长，现在数字技术进步发展，需要我们重新思考经济增长理论。
Digital economy development means some services will become new productivity growth points. Traditional growth theory assumes balanced single-sector growth, but digital advances require us to rethink economic growth theories.
数字经济不仅提高服务业的可贸易性，它可能降低了制造业的可贸易性。这对未来经济发展模式有深远的含义。
The digital economy not only enhances service tradability but may reduce manufacturing tradability, with profound implications for future development models.
数字经济更需要关注分配问题
Digital Economy Requires More Focus on Distribution
收入分配可能越来越走向极端，需要公共政策的关注。如果社会的收入分配越来越倾向于不可再生的资产，房地产，这样一个状态能不能持续，怎么来纠正？
Income distribution may become increasingly extreme, requiring policy attention. If social income distribution increasingly favors non-renewable assets like real estate, can this situation be sustained and how to correct it?
疫情提示我们思考的问题：无接触经济昭示了新的增长点；需要关注个人隐私保护；贫富差距问题在数字经济时代呈现新的特征。
Pandemic prompts us to consider: contactless economy reveals new growth points; privacy protection needs attention; wealth gap issues take new forms in digital era.
