橡胶市场风云：拉尼娜现象引发供应紧张 轮胎企业开工率飙升
近期全球橡胶市场呈现上涨趋势，截至5月28日收盘，橡胶期货价格报收于15175元/吨。国内外橡胶价格同步上涨，主要受到主产国减产和极端天气影响。（The global rubber market has shown an upward trend recently, with rubber futures closing at 15,175 yuan/ton on May 28. Both domestic and international rubber prices have risen simultaneously, mainly affected by production cuts in major producing countries and extreme weather conditions.）
拉尼娜现象威胁橡胶供应，国家气候中心预测2024年夏季可能出现弱到中等强度的拉尼娜现象，这将给东南亚主产区带来过量降雨，可能导致橡胶产量进一步下滑。（The La Niña phenomenon threatens rubber supply, with the National Climate Center predicting a weak to moderate La Niña event in summer 2024, which will bring excessive rainfall to major producing areas in Southeast Asia and may lead to further declines in rubber production.）
中国橡胶产量有所回升，2024年1-4月产量达72.5万吨，同比增加28.1万吨。虽然云南地区曾因高温干旱二次停割，但五一后降水充足，各地基本恢复正常开割。（China's rubber production has rebounded, reaching 725,000 tons from January to April 2024, a year-on-year increase of 281,000 tons. Although Yunnan experienced a second tapping suspension due to high temperature and drought, sufficient rainfall after May Day has basically restored normal tapping operations.）
轮胎企业开工率创新高，半钢轮胎开工率升至80.44%，全钢胎开工率为66.08%。海外轮胎出口订单旺盛，特别是半钢胎需求强劲，部分企业已将生产重心转向外贸。（Tire manufacturers' operating rates hit record highs, with semi-steel tire operating rates reaching 80.44% and all-steel tire operating rates at 66.08%. Overseas tire export orders are booming, especially strong demand for semi-steel tires, prompting some companies to shift production focus to foreign trade.）
港口库存大幅下降，截至5月26日青岛库存为53.91万吨，较三月末减少12.1万吨，降幅达18.29%。主要原因是东南亚供应不及预期和我国进口量环比下降。（Port inventories have dropped significantly, with Qingdao inventory at 539,100 tons as of May 26, down 121,000 tons from the end of March, a decrease of 18.29%. The main reasons are lower-than-expected supply from Southeast Asia and a month-on-month decline in China's imports.）
欧盟新规带来挑战，《欧盟零毁林法案》(EUDR)将于2024年12月30日实施，可能增加橡胶及其制品出口至欧洲的成本，同时影响中国市场供应品质。（New EU regulations pose challenges, as the EU Deforestation-Free Regulation (EUDR) will take effect on December 30, 2024, potentially increasing costs for rubber and related products exported to Europe while affecting supply quality in the Chinese market.）
机构对后市持乐观态度，光大期货认为成本端支撑偏强，下游需求旺盛，库存下降，橡胶价格将维持偏强震荡。但需警惕6月旺产季可能带来的价格回调风险。（Institutions remain optimistic about the market outlook. Everbright Futures believes strong cost support, robust downstream demand, and inventory declines will keep rubber prices firm. However, risks of price corrections during the peak production season in June should be monitored.）
