人民币贬值难救中国轮胎出口 贸易壁垒成最大挑战

人民币贬值难救中国轮胎出口 贸易壁垒成最大挑战

Depreciation of RMB Fails to Rescue China's Tire Exports as Trade Barriers Pose Biggest Challenge

中国轮胎出口面临严峻挑战

China's Tire Exports Face Severe Challenges

近日，贵州轮胎表示人民币贬值有利于公司出口业务。然而，山东威海某轮胎企业的黄先生对此并不乐观，他最担心的是美国"双反"政策的影响扩大和企业利润空间进一步被挤压。

Recently, Guizhou Tire stated that RMB depreciation is beneficial to its export business. However, Mr. Huang from a tire company in Weihai, Shandong is not optimistic about this, as he is most concerned about the expanding impact of US "double reverse" policies and further compression of corporate profit margins.

人民币贬值利好有限

Limited Benefits from RMB Depreciation

统计显示，人民币贬值1%可使出口增加约1.5个百分点。但对中国轮胎行业而言，这种利好有名无实。2015年，山东东营市橡胶轮胎出口额同比下降26.5%，人民币贬值未能缓解出口颓势。

Statistics show that a 1% depreciation of RMB can increase exports by about 1.5 percentage points. However, for China's tire industry, this benefit is nominal. In 2015, the export value of rubber tires in Dongying, Shandong decreased by 26.5% year-on-year, and RMB depreciation failed to alleviate the export downturn.

主要原因包括：

Main reasons include:

1. 人民币贬值幅度(2%-3%)远小于天然胶和轮胎产品降价幅度(10%以上)

1. The depreciation range of RMB (2%-3%) is much smaller than the price reduction range of natural rubber and tire products (more than 10%)

2. 轮胎贸易多采用美元结算，汇率变化影响有限

2. Tire trade mostly uses US dollar settlement, limiting the impact of exchange rate changes

贸易壁垒影响深远

Far-reaching Impact of Trade Barriers

2009年美国"轮胎特保案"导致中国对美轮胎出口从22亿美元骤降至9.68亿美元。2015-2016年，美国又对中国轿车、轻卡和卡客车轮胎发起"双反"调查。

The US "Tire Special Safeguard Case" in 2009 caused China's tire exports to the US to drop sharply from $2.2 billion to $968 million. In 2015-2016, the US launched "double reverse" investigations on Chinese passenger car, light truck and truck/bus tires.

更严峻的是，欧盟、印度、巴西、埃及等国家和地区也纷纷加入对中国轮胎的反倾销队伍。山东省橡胶行业协会理事长张洪民预测，2016年欧盟可能对中国轮胎提出"双反"调查。

More seriously, the EU, India, Brazil, Egypt and other countries and regions have also joined the anti-dumping campaign against Chinese tires. Zhang Hongmin, chairman of Shandong Rubber Industry Association, predicts that the EU may propose "double reverse" investigations on Chinese tires in 2016.

行业出路在于转型升级

Industry's Way Out Lies in Transformation and Upgrading

业内专家指出，汇率变化和贸易壁垒都不是根本问题。中国轮胎企业必须：

Industry experts point out that exchange rate changes and trade barriers are not fundamental problems. Chinese tire companies must:

1. 增加产品附加值

1. Increase product added value

2. 开发高端产品

2. Develop high-end products

3. 注重品牌建设

3. Focus on brand building

这才是中国轮胎业发展的必由之路。

This is the only way for the development of China's tire industry.