鸿路钢构：钢结构需求拐点显现 出口市场潜力巨大
核心观点：鸿路钢构（002541.SZ）凭借精细化管理与规模效应持续提升市场份额，当前钢结构行业需求拐点已现，出口市场更具备显著增长潜力。
Key Insight: Honglu Steel Structure (002541.SZ) continues to gain market share through refined management and economies of scale. The steel structure industry is now at an inflection point of demand recovery, with particularly strong growth potential in export markets.
一、需求拐点显现：工业用地成交回暖
1. Demand Inflection Point: Recovery in Industrial Land Transactions
钢结构主要下游应用包括制造业、基建及公共建筑领域。工业用地和商业用地成交面积是判断行业需求的前瞻指标。数据显示，2024年7月以来，工业用地单月成交面积已连续多月实现同比正增长，表明下游需求拐点已现。
The main downstream applications of steel structures include manufacturing, infrastructure and public buildings. Transaction area of industrial and commercial land serves as a leading indicator for industry demand. Data shows that since July 2024, monthly transaction area of industrial land has achieved year-on-year growth for multiple consecutive months, indicating an inflection point in downstream demand.
二、出口优势显著：税务政策+一带一路机遇
2. Significant Export Advantages: Tax Benefits + Belt and Road Opportunities
钢结构出口具备独特优势：1）相比钢材出口仍享受13%的出口退税；2）部分国家对我国钢材征收反倾销税，但对钢结构产品未加征。随着"一带一路"建设推进和中资企业海外项目增加，钢结构出口将成为重要增长点。
Steel structure exports have unique advantages: 1) Still enjoy 13% export tax rebate compared to steel exports; 2) Some countries impose anti-dumping duties on Chinese steel but not on steel structure products. With the advancement of the Belt and Road Initiative and the increase in overseas projects of Chinese enterprises, steel structure exports will become an important growth driver.
风险提示：钢价大幅波动、需求复苏不及预期、产能扩张不及预期、智能化改造进度延迟。
Risk Factors: Significant steel price fluctuations, slower-than-expected demand recovery, capacity expansion delays, slower progress in intelligent transformation.
报告日期：2024-12-11 | 来源：光大证券研究
Report Date: 2024-12-11 | Source: Everbright Securities Research
