橡胶市场风云：拉尼娜现象引发供应紧张 轮胎企业开工率暴涨
《华夏时报》记者 叶青 北京报道
By Ye Qing, China Times, Beijing
今年年初至今，大宗商品波动剧烈，继国际金价和铜价暴涨后，近日橡胶期货也出现上涨。据了解，2月初天然橡胶期货价格触底反弹，3月19日期货价格一度涨至15820元/吨的高位。
Since the beginning of this year, commodity markets have experienced significant volatility. Following the surge in international gold and copper prices, rubber futures have recently shown an upward trend. According to reports, natural rubber futures prices bottomed out in early February, reaching a high of 15,820 yuan/ton on March 19.
拉尼娜现象影响全球橡胶供应
La Niña Phenomenon Impacts Global Rubber Supply
光大期货能化团队表示："泰国主产区北部和东北部在5月上旬进入正常开割，南部地区五月下旬迎来开割，但降雨扰动增多，原料产出不及预期。"
Everbright Futures' energy and chemical team stated: "Thailand's main production areas in the north and northeast began normal tapping in early May, while the southern regions started in late May. However, increased rainfall disruptions have led to lower-than-expected raw material output."
港口库存大幅下降
Significant Drop in Port Inventory
截至5月26日最新数据显示，周度青岛库存为53.91万吨，较三月末去库12.1万吨，库存降幅达18.29%。
The latest data as of May 26 shows that weekly Qingdao inventory stood at 539,100 tons, a decrease of 121,000 tons compared to the end of March, representing an 18.29% inventory reduction.
轮胎企业开工率暴涨
Surge in Tire Manufacturing Operating Rates
据卓创资讯数据显示，上周国内轮胎企业半钢胎开工负荷为80.44%，较去年同期走高9.3%。全钢胎开工负荷为66.08%，较去年同期走高2.67%。
According to SCI data, last week's operating rate for domestic tire manufacturers' semi-steel tires reached 80.44%, up 9.3% year-on-year. The operating rate for all-steel tires was 66.08%, an increase of 2.67% compared to the same period last year.
机构中长期看涨橡胶价格
Institutions Remain Bullish on Rubber Prices in Medium to Long Term
光大期货能化团队表示："短期来看，国内外产区在开割放量阶段价格再度走高，EUDR认证抬升原料成本，成本端支撑偏强。下游轮胎开工负荷维持高位，国内政策刺激复苏。"
Everbright Futures' energy and chemical team commented: "In the short term, prices in domestic and international production areas have risen again during the tapping season. EUDR certification has increased raw material costs, providing strong support from the cost side. Downstream tire production maintains high operating rates, supported by domestic policy stimulus."
分析师建议投资者关注：
Analysts recommend investors pay attention to:
- 极端天气对主产区的影响
- Impact of extreme weather on major production areas
- 港口库存变化情况
- Changes in port inventory levels
- 欧盟零毁林法案(EUDR)实施进展
- Implementation progress of the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR)
- 汽车以旧换新政策效果
- Effectiveness of vehicle trade-in policies
