长城宏观解读8月外贸数据：出口增速或在筑底 稳增长政策需持续发力
核心观点/Key Conclusions:
8月份出口、进口同比降幅均收窄，但剔除基数因素从金额上看，出口没有出现超季节性的回升。 August saw narrowing year-on-year declines in both exports and imports, but after excluding base effects, export values showed no seasonal rebound.
数据概览/Data Overview:
• 出口金额: 2848.7亿美元 (-8.8%)
• Export value: $284.87 billion (-8.8%)
• 进口金额: 2165.1亿美元 (-7.3%)
• Import value: $216.51 billion (-7.3%)
• 贸易顺差: 683.6亿美元 (-13.1%)
• Trade surplus: $68.36 billion (-13.1%)
出口分析/Export Analysis:
1. 环比基本持稳/Relatively Stable Month-on-Month
5月以来出口金额在2800亿美元水平小幅波动，环比未超季节性回升。
Since May, export values have fluctuated slightly around $280 billion, with no seasonal rebound month-on-month.
2. 结构特征/Structural Characteristics
• 汽车、船舶是亮点，但汽车出口增速已放缓
• Automobiles and ships were bright spots, but auto export growth has slowed
• 对欧美出口持续下滑，俄罗斯市场表现突出
• Exports to Europe and America continued to decline, while Russia performed well
进口分析/Import Analysis:
8月进口环比回升7.7%，但7-8月波动较大，趋势上未摆脱下降特征。
August imports rebounded 7.7% month-on-month, but with large fluctuations in July-August, the downward trend remains.
未来展望/Future Outlook:
1. 出口可能持续负增长，四季度降幅或收窄
Exports may continue negative growth, with narrowing declines in Q4
2. 汇率可能继续波动，年底或至7.5左右
Exchange rate may continue to fluctuate, possibly reaching around 7.5 by year-end
3. 稳增长政策需持续发力，重点关注：
Stable growth policies need continued efforts, focusing on:
• 货币政策进一步宽松
• Further monetary policy easing
• 地产政策放松
• Real estate policy relaxation
• 财政政策支持
• Fiscal policy support
风险提示/Risk Warnings:
• 宏观经济政策不及预期
• Macroeconomic policies falling short of expectations
• 地缘政治风险
• Geopolitical risks
• 海外衰退不确定性
• Uncertainty of overseas recession
