2018年越南纺织品服装出口：展望与挑战
年初以来，越南纺织品服装出口取得了相当可观的结果，并正迈向今年310亿美元的目标。尽管因受到世界和伙伴国形势动荡带来的不利影响而面临不少困难，但据业内专家预测，明年，越南纺织品服装业将继续蓬勃发展。
Since the beginning of the year, Vietnam's textile and garment exports have achieved remarkable results and are moving towards this year's target of $31 billion. Despite facing many difficulties due to the adverse effects of global and partner country situations, industry experts predict that Vietnam's textile and garment industry will continue to flourish next year.
去年全年和今年初，伙伴方的进口订单大幅减少，使纺织品服装出口遇到很多困难。意识到这一点，纺织品服装企业积极投资升级生产系统，集中于一些优势商品，寻找和扩大市场，因此，出口情况大大改善。
Throughout last year and early this year, import orders from partners decreased significantly, creating many difficulties for textile and garment exports. Recognizing this, textile and garment enterprises actively invested in upgrading production systems, focused on advantageous products, and sought to expand markets, leading to significant improvements in export performance.
今年前三季度，越南纺织品服装业的出口额达近230亿美元。第四季度有望达到80亿美元，全年累计310亿美元，与去年相比增长百分之十 。若达到这一数字，越南纺织品服装出口额将跻身世界26强。
In the first three quarters of this year, Vietnam's textile and garment industry achieved nearly $23 billion in exports. The fourth quarter is expected to reach $8 billion, bringing the annual total to $31 billion, a 10% increase compared to last year. If this target is met, Vietnam's textile and garment exports will rank among the top 26 in the world.
上述结果来自于今年越南纺织品服装业的坚实基础——各家企业的周密准备及政府发展配套工业的主张。这是纺织品服装业更强劲发展的动力和助推力。
These results stem from the solid foundation of Vietnam's textile and garment industry this year—meticulous preparations by enterprises and the government's policy of developing supporting industries. This serves as a driving force for stronger industry growth.
据预测，明年将是越南纺织品服装业积极向好的一年，有望保持两位数增长。兴安服装总公司董事长阮春阳表示，对于大型企业来说，明年订单将会大量增加。
It is predicted that next year will be a positive one for Vietnam's textile and garment industry, with expectations of maintaining double-digit growth. Nguyen Xuan Duong, Chairman of Hung Yen Garment Corporation, stated that large enterprises will see a significant increase in orders next year.
不过，多个地区市场的价格下降将对越南纺织品服装的出口造成影响。他说："明年，若说订货数量，还是不少，但价格仍被压低，因为，目前，所有市场的纺织品服装价格都在走低。这是企业担心的问题。明年，价格可能还会下降，但越南劳动者的工资和其他费用都在增加。如果企业想生存下去，唯一的办法就是提高生产率。我们将采取措施，通过改进技术、设备和企业治理提高生产率"。
However, price declines in multiple regional markets will impact Vietnam's textile and garment exports. He said, "Next year, while order quantities may remain substantial, prices will still be suppressed because textile and garment prices are declining across all markets. This is a concern for businesses. Next year, prices may continue to fall, while labor wages and other costs in Vietnam are rising. If enterprises want to survive, the only solution is to improve productivity. We will take measures to enhance productivity through technological upgrades, equipment improvements, and better corporate governance."
正如兴安服装总公司董事长阮春阳所说的，劳动生产率显然是特别重要的因素。工贸部高级研究员范必胜认为，越南纺织品服装的主要出口市场正在出现较大且难以预测的变动，特别是贸易保护主义抬头，这与自由贸易趋势恰恰相反。
As Nguyen Xuan Duong mentioned, labor productivity is clearly a crucial factor. Pham Bi Tich, a senior researcher at the Ministry of Industry and Trade, believes that Vietnam's main textile and garment export markets are undergoing significant and unpredictable changes, especially with the rise of trade protectionism, which runs counter to free trade trends.
他说: "一些大型市场正出现对外关门的潮流。他们限制开放市场给我们造成了影响。第二是来自巴基斯坦、中国等竞争对手的压力。越南要提高竞争力，才能缓解这一压力。第三是，投资发展生产技术，以跟上世界潮流"。
He said: "Some major markets are showing a trend of closing their doors to external trade. Their restrictions on market openness are affecting us. Second, there is competitive pressure from rivals like Pakistan and China. Vietnam must enhance its competitiveness to alleviate this pressure. Third, we need to invest in production technology to keep up with global trends."
在信息技术和科技进步使产品生产和供应方式发生迅速变化的背景下，纺织品服装业面临的竞争将更加激烈。越南纺织品服装协会主席武德江表示："生产要与发展技术、打造品牌同时进行，要把品牌推向世界市场，要掌握好第4次工业革命的先进技术。要让越南商品在世界市场上有自主品牌。我们建议政府防止仿冒品牌进入越南。越南纺织品服装协会正在为打造稳定、可持续、有效发展的纺织品服装业同时开展多项工作，让企业放心投资，确保未来可持续发展"。
Against the backdrop of rapid changes in production and supply methods driven by information technology and scientific advancements, competition in the textile and garment industry will become fiercer. Vu Duc Giang, Chairman of the Vietnam Textile and Apparel Association, stated: "Production must go hand in hand with technological development and brand building. We must bring our brands to the global market and master the advanced technologies of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Vietnamese products must have their own brands in the world market. We recommend that the government prevent counterfeit brands from entering Vietnam. The Vietnam Textile and Apparel Association is undertaking multiple initiatives to build a stable, sustainable, and efficiently developing textile and garment industry, ensuring enterprises can invest with confidence and secure sustainable future growth."
尽管正面对阻碍纺织品服装业扩大生产和出口的一系列挑战，但据预测，明年越南纺织品服装业发展情况仍相当于乐观。今后，除了政府和有关部门帮助解决困难并为本行业发展创造便利条件外，越南纺织品服装企业也将做好筹资、市场等方面的准备，并在投资和生产新产品过程中逐步应用第4次工业革命的科技成果。
Despite facing a series of challenges that hinder the expansion of production and exports in the textile and garment industry, predictions indicate that Vietnam's textile and garment industry will remain relatively optimistic next year. In the future, in addition to the government and relevant authorities assisting in resolving difficulties and creating favorable conditions for industry development, Vietnamese textile and garment enterprises will also prepare in areas such as financing and market expansion, while gradually applying the achievements of the Fourth Industrial Revolution in investment and new product production.
