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README.md
@@ -490,9 +490,9 @@ P(Smoke|Fire) means how often we can see smoke when there is fire
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So the formula kind of tells us "forwards" P(Fire|Smoke) when we know "backwards" P(Smoke|Fire)
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Example: If dangerous fires are rare (1%) but smoke is fairly common (10%) due to barbecues, and 90% of dangerous fires make smoke then:
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- P(Fire|Smoke) = P(Fire) P(Smoke|Fire)P(Smoke)
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- = 1% x 90%10%
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- =9%
+ P(Fire|Smoke) = P(Fire) * P(Smoke|Fire) / P(Smoke)
+ = 1% x 90% / 10%
+ = 9%
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So the "Probability of dangerous Fire when there is Smoke" is 9%
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