Imagine this.
You’ve been handed a new feature to develop. You dive straight into the code. You crush it in a few days, thinking, “Wow, I’m fast.” But your manager? They're frustrated. The project is behind schedule. Another team is blocked. You realize your “few days” were expected to be just one.
And just like that — you’ve become part of the chaos.
So, what went wrong?
You didn’t estimate your work.
And before you roll your eyes — no, this isn’t just a PM thing. If you’re an engineer who wants to:
- Ship on time
- Gain trust
- Work sustainably (no more last-minute sprints)
- Grow into senior roles
…then estimation is your superpower.
💡 Why Engineers Avoid Estimation (And Why That’s Dangerous)
Let’s be honest — estimation is hard. You might relate to these:
- “I’ve never done this before, how do I guess the time?”
- “What if I give a wrong estimate and get blamed?”
- “My manager can just estimate — not my problem.”
But here’s the catch:
Avoiding estimation doesn’t save you — it sets you up for failure.
Instead of being seen as “flexible,” you end up looking unreliable.
And your future self (and your team) will thank you for getting better at it.
🧠 The Mindset Shift: Estimation is Not About Accuracy
Think of estimation like weather forecasting.
You're not predicting the future. You're setting expectations based on experience, risks, and unknowns.
And yes, it’s okay to be wrong — as long as you communicate and revise as you go.
Here’s a great article that breaks this down beautifully:
👉 Why software estimation is hard — and why you should still do it
🔧 Tips That Actually Help You Estimate Better
Here’s a no-BS list of strategies I wish I learned earlier:
- Break it down small
- “Build a user dashboard” is vague.
- Instead: “Create dashboard layout,” “Integrate API,” “Add charts,” etc.
- Use time ranges
- Instead of saying 2 days, say 1–3 days.
- It gives breathing room and highlights uncertainty.
- Count unknowns
- If a feature depends on 3rd-party APIs, mark it as high risk.
-
Multiply time by 1.5 or 2.
Example:
// Estimating a task with unknown integration const baseEstimate = 8; // hours const riskMultiplier = 1.5; const finalEstimate = baseEstimate * riskMultiplier;
- Compare with past tasks
- Use your Git history or task tracker to recall how long similar work took.
- Tools like Linear or Jira help if you’re in a structured team.
- Communicate often
- Don't just give an estimate and disappear.
- If things change — update stakeholders early.
🚀 Real-World Estimation Approaches
1. T-shirt sizing
Estimate effort using sizes: XS, S, M, L, XL.
Good for early discussions when details aren’t final.
2. Planning Poker
Each dev gives a number (in story points). Discuss the gap.
Great for uncovering different understandings of the task.
3. Three-point estimation
Use:
- Optimistic time (O)
- Most likely time (M)
- Pessimistic time (P)
Formula:
Expected = (O + 4M + P) / 6 This helps handle uncertainty better.
🔄 What Happens When You Get It Wrong?
You will get estimates wrong — and that’s fine.
The key is to learn from it:
- Why did it take longer?
- Was there an unknown you missed?
- Did you under-communicate?
Each mistake improves your gut feel and sharpens your foresight.
🧰 Useful Resources to Level Up Your Estimation Skills
Here are some fantastic reads and tools:
- 📘 Software Estimation: Demystifying the Black Art (McConnell)
- 🎥 Joel Spolsky on Evidence-Based Scheduling
- 📚 The Shape Up Method by Basecamp — A refreshing take on planning and shipping without over-specifying
👨💻 Estimation Is a Skill — Not a Guessing Game
If you're a junior dev, learn it early.
If you're a senior dev, mentor others.
If you're in IT consulting, estimation directly affects client trust and billing.
And if you want to become a tech lead or architect?
Your influence starts with clarity — and nothing brings clarity like good estimates.
👉 Let me know:
- How do you approach estimation?
- Do you have tips or horror stories?
Drop them in the comments — let’s help each other grow! 💬
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👉 Follow [DCT Technology]— we post actionable and engaging tech content regularly.
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